Får mothugg om långräntor

Hamnade i ännu en diskussion på Shareville (länk) om räntor - är det någon som är förvånad :)

Argumentet var, ungefär, att vi nu är på väg in i en ny recession, eftersom korta räntor är högre än långa (inget dåligt argument i och för sig - men det brukar snarare vara när man kommer ur en högkonjunktur är mitt korta svar). Hur som helst fick jag den här härliga länken till en sida med statistik bland annat om sambandet börs och räntor som jag gärna delar med mig av.

Mitt svar i diskussionen var:

Most interesting reading :) My thoughts:

1. The best indicator of central bank action currently is 5y5y inflation forecast take a look at this curve http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=18ew To me this clearly indicates a) American QE have worked wonders and the US has no expectation problem b) FED will intervene when the forecast reaches 2,5 percent and c) lower oilprices and stronger dollar have postponed this shift. But unless this factors continue in trend, other trends will keep inflation expectations rising and long rates will rise regardless.
2. I agree the gap in long rates (and the correlated currency war) will have a large impact on the equation but if the Eurozone reacts similarly to the US when QE continues to kick in long rates will increase. There are signs of improvement in i.e. Germany, Spain, Portugal (what about Finland?). So I rather see an upward preassure from abroad (after a long time of holding the US interest rates back). But, ok, there is some sort of balance here, because the effect of the strong dollar is perhaps to visible for FED to ignore. On the other hand, ECB seems to have the better argument in a discussion on who needs the inflationary support right now. 
3. So to me american long rates have an underlying upward trend (I think Nordea is about right when they believe 10-year will reach 2,20 reasonable soon and pass 3 in the latter part of 2016). This will not only be induced by FED-action but also will happened regardless.
4. I don’t see oil passing $80 any time soon, rather the supply glut will persist according to nearly every source I read, including IEA. With Shell buying BG there seems to be a new phase in the development but, my guess, where looking a few years in to the future before prices really pick up. In the last issue of Economist one article showed that even though new drill holes in shale oil is down drastically, most producers are still making money and US is actually still increasing its output.
5. I know Germany (and Finland?) is putting a lot of preassure on structural reform. And a point can be made from the Japanese experience. On the other hand, why in the short run should QE work worse just because there are ineffeciencies in the economy? Sure problem will reignite in Greece, France and Italy but I’m not sure this will hinder inflation expectations from rising (perhaps the opposite as the message is, “when in money problem, just push the print-button”. To me the problem is – are Germany prepared to devalue it’s large savings? In effect lowering export prices on old sales. This is what has happened to Japan and it is easy to understand why the germans don’t like this. But, if QE runs, will it effect anybody but the german savers?
6. I am actually short American bonds right now (check my portfolio). Except the arguments in this answer I also see the risk of a bond bubble.

Best regards

Gottodix